{"id":24491,"date":"2025-12-17T09:31:58","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T09:31:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investx.fr\/en\/?p=24491"},"modified":"2025-12-17T09:58:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T09:58:19","slug":"bitcoin-what-are-odds-christmas-rally-for-btc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-what-are-odds-christmas-rally-for-btc\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: What are the odds of a Christmas rally for BTC?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"btc-stuck-below-90000-a-critical-level\">BTC Stuck Below $90,000: A Critical Level<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> is going through a <strong>delicate consolidation phase<\/strong> around the $90,000 mark, a major psychological threshold for traders. This technical resistance has persisted for several weeks, creating an intense friction zone between buyers and sellers. Trading volumes remain relatively low, signaling <strong>widespread indecision<\/strong> in the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"fr\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcc9 Le Bitcoin repasse sous les 90 000 dollars <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KrnfUksKuX\">pic.twitter.com\/KrnfUksKuX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; BTC strat\u00e9gie (@BTCstrategie) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BTCstrategie\/status\/1999511895322038479?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 12, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Price action shows a typical volatility compression pattern preceding significant moves. Technical indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) display neutral values around 50, while Bollinger Bands are gradually tightening. This configuration suggests that a <strong>major breakout<\/strong> could occur in the coming weeks, though the direction remains uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Key support now sits <strong>around $85,000<\/strong>, a zone that has already proven its strength during recent tests. A drop below this level could trigger cascading liquidations and call the bullish scenario into question. Conversely, a weekly close above $92,000 would <strong>open the path toward $100,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"does-historical-data-support-a-holiday-rally\">Does Historical Data Support a Holiday Rally?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysis of <strong>Bitcoin&#8217;s historical performance<\/strong> in December reveals mixed trends. Over the past ten years, December has been positive in 60% of cases, with an <strong>average performance of +8.5%<\/strong>. However, this statistic masks significant dispersion: some years have seen spectacular gains of <strong>over 30%<\/strong>, while others have suffered brutal corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Halving and post-halving years generally present more favorable patterns. In 2020, six months after the halving, Bitcoin recorded a <strong>47% gain in December<\/strong>. This year, 2024, also being post-halving, could theoretically benefit from similar dynamics. Market sentiment remains broadly constructive despite caution displayed by <strong>some major institutional investors<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs constitute a crucial indicator. Since their launch in January 2024, these investment vehicles have attracted <strong>over $25 billion<\/strong>, creating structural buying pressure. On-chain data also shows continued accumulation by whales and a <strong>decreasing supply of bitcoin available<\/strong> on exchanges, two traditionally bullish signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"macroeconomic-factors-weigh-on-expectations\">Macroeconomic Factors Weigh on Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The global macroeconomic environment remains the primary uncertainty factor for a potential Christmas rally. The <strong>U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s monetary policy<\/strong> plays a determining role in appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin. Recent FOMC communications suggest maintaining interest rates at elevated levels at least through the first quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar maintains its relative strength against other major currencies, which traditionally exerts <strong>downward pressure on <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/learn\/crypto\/\">cryptocurrencies<\/a><\/strong>. Paradoxically, persistent geopolitical tensions and <strong>inflationary concerns<\/strong> could strengthen Bitcoin&#8217;s appeal as an alternative store of value. This duality creates a <strong>complex market configuration<\/strong> where multiple scenarios remain open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Store your BTC in the world&#8217;s most secure <a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/visiter-ledger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Ledger wallets<\/a><\/strong>. Right now, take advantage of an exceptional promotion: $80 in BTC with your purchase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a class=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/visiter-ledger\" href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/visiter-ledger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"418\" src=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/12\/image-231.jpeg\" alt=\"A smartphone with a ledger stax on black background for a black friday offer\" class=\"wp-image-24498\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/12\/image-231.jpeg 800w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/12\/image-231-300x157.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/media.investx.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/12\/image-231-768x401.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Related articles:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/decoding-bitcoins-december-comeback-with-bart-simpson-pattern-what-does-mean\/\">Decoding Bitcoin\u2019s december comeback with the Bart Simpson pattern: What does it mean?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/ai-predicts-bottom-reveals-bitcoin-price-target-for-december\/\">AI predicts bottom and reveals Bitcoin price target for December<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/preprod.investx.fr\/en\/crypto-news\/analysis-why-is-xrp-struggling-break-through-2-barrier\/\">Analysis: Why is XRP struggling to break through the $2 barrier?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the festive season approaches, a recurring question in the crypto markets arises: Is Bitcoin about to kick off a Christmas rally, as seen in previous cycles? With on-chain data, institutional flows, and market psychology in play, signals are starting to align&#8230; or are they?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":24489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"bitcoin","_yoast_wpseo_title":"Is a Christmas rally for Bitcoin still possible?","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Discover if Bitcoin will see a Christmas rally. Explore key indicators, trading volumes, market sentiment, and potential scenarios for BTC.","footnotes":"","faq_titre":"","questions_frequentes":"","custom_permalink":""},"categories":[12,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-crypto-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is a Christmas rally for Bitcoin still possible?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover if Bitcoin will see a Christmas rally. 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